On when the ‘Energy Crisis’ will end (Part 2): Saturday 27 November 2021

As described in the bottom line here (https://kudakwashe-chinhara.medium.com/on-when-the-energy-crisis-will-end-saturday-16-october-2021-16b75f4c661a), I bailed out of Crude when the regime model flipped to the ominous red (a.k.a “Sell the Rip”) in mid-November (correct me if I am wrong, but that was prior to Sleepy Joe talking about the SPR?). What I FOOLISHLY failed to do, however, is follow through on the rest of the plan to “aggressively get explosive downside structures into the portfolio”. This has proven to be a very expensive mistake in terms of opportunity cost. Darn it.

Figure 1: Hydra Regime Model — Crude Oil

They may yet be one more opportunity, however. The nature of the swing into the recent high raises the possibility of more drama to come BEFORE Crude truly gets smoked. In Elliott-parlance, an expanded flat (http://www.elliottwave.net/educational/basictenets/basics3.htm) for the Wave (4) below would involve further losses to the 56/61 area. Thereafter, the terminal 5th-wave would carry prices as high as the 90s (perhaps along with stocks reaching a major top) before a dramatic collapse occurs. I will not miss such an opportunity should it present itself…stay sharp.

Figure 2: Crude Oil 3W Chart — Elliott Scenarios
Figure 3: Crude Oil 3d Chart — Elliott Scenarios



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