A Short Word on Cycles: Sunday 11 July 2021

  1. Minor cycles averaging 3 1/3 years (40 months) in length;
  2. Major cycles, or so-called trade cycles, which are merely aggregates usually of two, and less seldom of three, minor cycles; and
  3. Fundamental ‘movements or trends, which are largely straight-line movements.”
Figure 1: Spectral Analysis of S&P 500
Figure 2: S&P 500 Turbo Cycles
  1. A saw-tooth overlay on the SPX chart
  2. A projection line with 6 harmonic overtones in the panel below
Figure 3: The Kitchin Cycle in the S&P 500 from 1989 to 1919
Figure 4: The Kitchin Cycle in the S&P 500 from 1949 to 1989
Figure 5: The Kitchin Cycle in the S&P 500 from 1989 to 2021
Figure 6: The Kitchin Cycle in the S&P 500 from 2015 to 2022

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Kudakwashe Chinhara

Kudakwashe Chinhara

Statistician, Cycle Analyst, Chartered Market Technician