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Kudakwashe Chinhara
Kudakwashe Chinhara

27 Followers

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Oct 11, 2022

A Final Public Word on Cycles: Tuesday 11 October 2022

· Three months ago in this note, A Short Word on Cycles Part 2 — The Kitchin Supremacy: Monday 4 July 2022 | by Kudakwashe Chinhara | Medium, a cycle beat in Dec22/Apr23 was identified as a period into which a “potential violent decline” would progress, following a brief bear-market…

Economics

2 min read

A Final Public Word on Cycles: Tuesday 11 October 2022
A Final Public Word on Cycles: Tuesday 11 October 2022
Economics

2 min read


Jul 4, 2022

A Short Word on Cycles Part 2 — The Kitchin Supremacy: Monday 4 July 2022

One year ago in this note, A Short Word on Cycles: Sunday 11 July 2021 | by Kudakwashe Chinhara | Medium, the Kitchin Cycle warned of two periods to watch for potential market weakness. The first was September 2021 and the second was June 2022. So what transpired? Essentially, these:

Economy

3 min read

A Short Word on Cycles Part 2 — The Kitchin Supremacy: Monday 4 July 2022
A Short Word on Cycles Part 2 — The Kitchin Supremacy: Monday 4 July 2022
Economy

3 min read


Nov 27, 2021

My U-turn on the Dollar: Saturday 27 November 2021

I could not have been more wrong on the Dollar here (https://kudakwashe-chinhara.medium.com/dxy-cycle-study-suggests-weakness-ahead-friday-23-july-2021-a772fdfbbc9d) and so here I am… November in the EUR/USD has the hallmarks of a 3rd-wave extension (http://www.elliottwave.net/educational/basictenets/basics2.htm). If that is the case, then the poor cross could be in “Sell the Rip” state for a long time. I am doing just that…

European Union

1 min read

My U-turn on the Dollar: Saturday 27 November 2021
My U-turn on the Dollar: Saturday 27 November 2021
European Union

1 min read


Nov 27, 2021

On when the ‘Energy Crisis’ will end (Part 2): Saturday 27 November 2021

As described in the bottom line here (https://kudakwashe-chinhara.medium.com/on-when-the-energy-crisis-will-end-saturday-16-october-2021-16b75f4c661a), I bailed out of Crude when the regime model flipped to the ominous red (a.k.a “Sell the Rip”) in mid-November (correct me if I am wrong, but that was prior to Sleepy Joe talking about the SPR?). What I FOOLISHLY failed to…

Oil

2 min read

On when the ‘Energy Crisis’ will end (Part 2): Saturday 27 November 2021
On when the ‘Energy Crisis’ will end (Part 2): Saturday 27 November 2021
Oil

2 min read


Nov 27, 2021

Did Red Friday kill the Bull Market? Saturday 27 November 2021

After going on the defensive and hedging the portfolio in early November (as described here https://kudakwashe-chinhara.medium.com/is-the-bull-market-over-part-2-more-words-on-cycles-sunday-31-october-2021-6ea904067298), I ultimately reversed from long to short just before Thanksgiving, for the reasons given in the aforementioned update. While the tech-heavy US indices (NDX and SPX) seem to be holding up, the 5–10% drawdowns…

Tesla

3 min read

Did Red Friday kill the Bull Market? Saturday 27 November 2021
Did Red Friday kill the Bull Market? Saturday 27 November 2021
Tesla

3 min read


Oct 31, 2021

Is the Bull Market Over — Part 2? More Words on Cycles: Sunday 31 October 2021

Quick end of the month performance update…September sucked for the regime-based asset-allocation algo, but October saw a revival…allocation to metals has been a drag… Currently the algo is invested in Stocks (“Buy the dip”), Metals (“Buy the dip”), and Bonds (“Mind the Squeeze”)

Economy

2 min read

Is the Bull Market Over — Part 2? More Words on Cycles: Sunday 31 October 2021
Is the Bull Market Over — Part 2? More Words on Cycles: Sunday 31 October 2021
Economy

2 min read


Oct 16, 2021

On when the ‘Energy Crisis’ will end: Saturday 16 October 2021

Bought crude oil on the dip into the top of the accumulation range identified in late-July here (https://kudakwashe-chinhara.medium.com/wti-crude-oil-friday-23-july-2021-373c8c0aff3f). The market has since rallied over 30% and the map I am using raises some very interesting points for the next few months. The regime model flipped out of “Sell the Rip”…

Energy

3 min read

On when the ‘Energy Crisis’ will end: Saturday 16 October 2021
On when the ‘Energy Crisis’ will end: Saturday 16 October 2021
Energy

3 min read


Oct 10, 2021

Is the Bull Market Over? Another Short Word on Cycles: Sunday 10 October 2021

After going on the defensive in the penultimate week of August as described here (https://kudakwashe-chinhara.medium.com/macro-roundup-wednesday-18-august-2021-89f9713c4ae5), I have been using 4290/4350 in SPX to accumulate stocks in one form or the other across my portfolios. Why? In mid-July, September 2021 was identified as a danger zone for the stock market (here…

Stocks

2 min read

Is the Bull Market Over? Another Short Word on Cycles: Sunday 10 October 2021
Is the Bull Market Over? Another Short Word on Cycles: Sunday 10 October 2021
Stocks

2 min read


Aug 18, 2021

Macro Roundup Wednesday 18 August 2021

In the last update, we saw Stocks maintaining their “Mind the Squeeze” regime and they have continued to do just that. However in the last several sessions, we have seen, first, a switch into “Buy the Dip” and then just yesterday into the “Amber Alert” a.k.a “Mind the Flop”. …

Stock Market

2 min read

Macro Roundup Wednesday 18 August 2021
Macro Roundup Wednesday 18 August 2021
Stock Market

2 min read


Aug 1, 2021

Following up: Is another stock-market squeeze on the cards? Sunday 1 August 2021

During the sell-off in early-March 2021, the regime-model flipped to “Mind the Squeeze” (see the March 7th update “Is another stock-market squeeze on the cards”). With the market now ~15% higher we find ourselves in the same position as shown in the chart below. This is intriguing given that we…

Finance

2 min read

Following up: Is another stock-market squeeze on the cards? Sunday 1 August 2021
Following up: Is another stock-market squeeze on the cards? Sunday 1 August 2021
Finance

2 min read

Kudakwashe Chinhara

Kudakwashe Chinhara

27 Followers

Statistician, Cycle Analyst, Chartered Market Technician

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