One year ago in this note, A Short Word on Cycles: Sunday 11 July 2021 | by Kudakwashe Chinhara | Medium, the Kitchin Cycle warned of two periods to watch for potential market weakness. The first was September 2021 and the second was June 2022. So what transpired? Essentially, these:

I could not have been more wrong on the Dollar here (https://kudakwashe-chinhara.medium.com/dxy-cycle-study-suggests-weakness-ahead-friday-23-july-2021-a772fdfbbc9d) and so here I am… November in the EUR/USD has the hallmarks of a 3rd-wave extension (http://www.elliottwave.net/educational/basictenets/basics2.htm). If that is the case, then the poor cross could be in “Sell the Rip” state for a long time. I am doing just that…

As described in the bottom line here (https://kudakwashe-chinhara.medium.com/on-when-the-energy-crisis-will-end-saturday-16-october-2021-16b75f4c661a), I bailed out of Crude when the regime model flipped to the ominous red (a.k.a “Sell the Rip”) in mid-November (correct me if I am wrong, but that was prior to Sleepy Joe talking about the SPR?). What I FOOLISHLY failed to…

After going on the defensive and hedging the portfolio in early November (as described here https://kudakwashe-chinhara.medium.com/is-the-bull-market-over-part-2-more-words-on-cycles-sunday-31-october-2021-6ea904067298), I ultimately reversed from long to short just before Thanksgiving, for the reasons given in the aforementioned update. While the tech-heavy US indices (NDX and SPX) seem to be holding up, the 5–10% drawdowns…

Quick end of the month performance update…September sucked for the regime-based asset-allocation algo, but October saw a revival…allocation to metals has been a drag… Currently the algo is invested in Stocks (“Buy the dip”), Metals (“Buy the dip”), and Bonds (“Mind the Squeeze”)

Bought crude oil on the dip into the top of the accumulation range identified in late-July here (https://kudakwashe-chinhara.medium.com/wti-crude-oil-friday-23-july-2021-373c8c0aff3f). The market has since rallied over 30% and the map I am using raises some very interesting points for the next few months. The regime model flipped out of “Sell the Rip”…

After going on the defensive in the penultimate week of August as described here (https://kudakwashe-chinhara.medium.com/macro-roundup-wednesday-18-august-2021-89f9713c4ae5), I have been using 4290/4350 in SPX to accumulate stocks in one form or the other across my portfolios. Why? In mid-July, September 2021 was identified as a danger zone for the stock market (here…

In the last update, we saw Stocks maintaining their “Mind the Squeeze” regime and they have continued to do just that. However in the last several sessions, we have seen, first, a switch into “Buy the Dip” and then just yesterday into the “Amber Alert” a.k.a “Mind the Flop”. …

During the sell-off in early-March 2021, the regime-model flipped to “Mind the Squeeze” (see the March 7th update “Is another stock-market squeeze on the cards”). With the market now ~15% higher we find ourselves in the same position as shown in the chart below. This is intriguing given that we…